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Second, management should affirm that the AWS growth deceleration is nearing its end after hitting mid-teens YoY growth in January. Based on encouraging management comments from SaaS businesses I used to cover on SA, I feel this is also a feasible possibility.
Amazon uses SBC by granting restricted stock units (RSUs) to its employees. One RSU typically symbolizes one share of the company, which will be "unlocked" by the recipient after working for the company for a predetermined period of time beginning on the award date. This is the so-called vesting term, which typically lasts four years (as in the case of Amazon) and is divided into smaller time spans.
RSUs provide a more consistent revenue stream than stock options because the employee receives the company's shares regardless of the actual share price. Furthermore, RSUs do not require any cash investment. RSUs are more predictable not only for employees and the corporation but also for analysts. These were among the factors that made RSUs more popular among tech businesses in recent years, particularly after the Covid-induced stock market crisis, which terrified stock option holders to a large extent.
Both data points suggest that shareholder dilution at Amazon was roughly 1.6-1.7% in 2022, a significant rise over previous years. At this point, the issue arises: Should investors be concerned?
To demonstrate how 1.6-1.7% annual dilution could affect share valuation in the coming years, consider the following scenario: Assume Amazon achieves an operating margin of 10% in 2027, which, when combined with analysts' current average revenue estimates, results in an operating income of $87.2 billion for that year. With a present enterprise value of $1.1 trillion, this translates to an EV/EBIT ratio of 12.6 and operating income in 2027. If we assume that dilution remains constant at 1.6-1.7% until 2027, we will have a cumulative dilution of 6.8% at the start of 2027. When this effect is factored into share valuation, the forward EV/EBIT ratio rises from 12.6 to 13.5. Although this rise is not insignificant, I feel it has little impact on whether an investor decides to acquire the shares or not. Based on this scenario, 1.6-1.7% annual dilution in the following years would not be disastrous.
Another intriguing part of the 2023 shareholder dilution will be whether Amazon tries to offset the effect by purchasing back shares as they did in H1 2022. This, I believe, will not occur until the corporation is able to rebuild its FCF-generating ability, which continued to weaken in 2022 following a bad 2021.
At current levels, I believe Amazon stock offers an excellent long-term investment opportunity, and increased SBC expenditure and shareholder dilution in 2022 should not deter investors from investing in the company's shares.
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